Provincial Highway 407

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

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AECOM was engaged to review the traffic and revenue forecasts for Provincial Highway 407 in Toronto, Canada.

Highway 407 is an Express Toll Route (ETR), meaning that it tolls vehicles automatically, saving both valuable land and time. 407 begins at the junction of the Queen Elizabeth Way and Highway 403 in Burlington, and travels east to Highway 7 and Durham Regional Road 1.

Confirmed by actual traffic outcomes, AECOM’s report to equity participants predicted substantially higher traffic volumes than earlier studies. AECOM subsequently updated its advice on traffic and revenue, preparing forecasts for the client’s acquisition of a 40 percent share in CINTRA, the principal owner of the 407 ETR.

For the ongoing financial and operational management of the asset, AECOM has:

  • Completed a due diligence review in 2001, which resulted in Macquarie acquiring a large stake in the 407 ETR.
  • Developed a model used for forecasting traffic and revenue that enabled different tolling scenarios to be tested to estimate the impact on revenue of different tolling structures.
  • Provided annual revenue forecasts, and will continue until 2054, for a number of different tolling strategies that were used to revalue the asset for reporting in the financial statements and to determine an optimal tolling strategy.
  • Conducted a monthly breakdown of traffic and revenue forecasts for the upcoming calendar year, while completing a variance analysis on the previous year’s forecasts.
  • Completed a second due diligence review of the toll road in July 2004, in preparation for Macquarie Infrastructure Group (MIG) selling off part of its share in the highway.
  • Prepared, on an irregular basis, advice on the impacts of adverse events affecting traffic flows on the 407 ETR.